Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets despite expected donor withdrawal by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies.

BACKGROUND: Despite a non-decreasing HIV epidemic, international donors are soon expected to withdraw funding from Kazakhstan. Here we analyze how allocative, implementation, and technical efficiencies could strengthen the national HIV response under assumptions of future budget levels. METHODOLOGY: We used the Optima model to project future scenarios of the HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan that varied in future antiretroviral treatment unit costs and management expenditure-two areas identified for potential cost-reductions. We determined optimal allocations across HIV programs to satisfy either national targets or ambitious targets. For each scenario, we considered two cases of future HIV financing: the 2014 national budget maintained into the future and the 2014 budget without current international investment. FINDINGS: Kazakhstan can achieve its national HIV targets with the current budget by (1) optimally re-allocating resources across programs and (2) either securing a 35% [30%-39%] reduction in antiretroviral treatment drug costs or reducing management costs by 44% [36%-58%] of 2014 levels. Alternatively, a combination of antiretroviral treatment and management cost-reductions could be sufficient. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious targets of halving new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2020 compared to 2014 levels by attaining a 67% reduction in antiretroviral treatment costs, a 19% [14%-27%] reduction in management costs, and allocating resources optimally. SIGNIFICANCE: With Kazakhstan facing impending donor withdrawal, it is important for the HIV response to achieve more with available resources. This analysis can help to guide HIV response planners in directing available funding to achieve the greatest yield from investments. The key changes recommended were considered realistic by Kazakhstan country representatives.

The epidemiology of HIV and AIDS in the world.

The worldwide epidemic of HIV continues to expand in many regions of the world, particularly in southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, East Asia and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Estimates are that at the end of 2005 there were 38.6 million persons living with HIV infection and that 4.1 million new infections and 2.8 million deaths from HIV occurred during the year. Regionally different patterns predominate from generalized heterosexual epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Caribbean to mixes of epidemics in which transmission among injection drug users, their sexual partners, commercial sex workers and their partners intersect. Multilateral and bilateral antiretroviral access campaigns, such as the World Health Organization's 3 x 5 initiative, have resulted in broader access to live-saving therapy for infected persons in low- and middle-income countries, but several million infected people who are clinically eligible for antiretroviral therapy remain untreated. The public health challenge worldwide is to keep the uninfected and to treat and care for those who have already been infected.